As I cruise around the heavily crowded train, I feel an unhealthy vibe of despair all around me. Everyone’s temper seems to be more fragile than the usual. Everybody looks like they are having very little faith.
Politics was the most discussed among passengers, and the talk was floating around June 30th upcoming protests. To many people, June 30th represents an opportunity for Egypt to change and become the long awaited –so called- world leader. While for others, it marks the beginning of chaos.
Before you jump into conclusions, I don’t really have a robust political opinion. First of all, the information available about the current situation in Egypt seems unclear. The shadow of uncertainty has been/still is, taking over; which makes me unable to form a well-rounded opinion. Secondly, the knowledge I have regarding politics is that of the average citizen, which makes my opinion less credible to the others and myself.
For now, all what we have is indicators pointing nowhere. Which makes the following argument simply futile.
First expected scenario for 30th of June: According to the optimists, June 30th protests will be very powerful, that the current president will have to either be kicked out by force, resign or submit to the protestors demands. Not only the optimistic theory is least supported by indicators (history of presidential decisions), but also the word “optimistic” needs to be questioned.
Lets assume the president resigns, which makes the president’s spot vacant. There are many people who want that spot, regardless of their reasons or intentions. There are the Islamic parties, which became a power that is surprisingly still under estimated by many. There are the liberal parties, who work over-ground and they relatively lead the urban public opinion; however, their intentions still seem unclear. There is the Muslim brotherhood, which will try to re-capture their presidential spot. There is the ex-Mubarak- regime, which recently has been gaining points due to the unfulfilling performance of the current government. Last but not least, there are the individuals with power/ wealth/ publicity, who also want the presidential spot.
The second the president leaves is also the second everyone will go after power; now what is the expected outcome? Yes, you guessed it right, Civil War.
The other side of the argument may hint that by forming a government from different perspectives, the civil war could be dodged. Now that raises 2 questions. First, last time I checked, all presidential candidates had the words “representative government” on their forehead; until–obviously- it was time for the elections. Secondly, if you are opting for a representative government, why not work on getting places in the parliament?
Within all probabilities, the civil war seems more than likely, which makes the optimistic theory a chance for the army to make their comeback. I am not saying the army is bad, I am just saying it is a few rectangles before square one.
Second expected scenario for 30th of June: The second expected scenario is widely recognized as the pessimists view. Maybe the protests will fail miserably, the people will give up, go home or just let it go (which I doubt) or the president will come up with an innovative idea to redirect the people’s attention away from the protests (which is very likely but I wonder if it will be effective). Shortly, the pessimists’ scenario contains all the reasons why/how the protests can fail. The pessimistic scenario results in stagnation (staying at the current square), which will eventually lead to another movement of protests with repeated optimistic/ pessimistic outcomes.
So where are we? We are lying in the middle of the cycle. We are standing right here slowly losing the life that is left in us, and we can do very little about it…
I write this out of frustration. I neither have a point that I want to prove, nor have a solution that is a promised fix. I lie down here just like you, floating around in a closed circle, searching for certainty, hoping to find a way out.